Microsoft MyPhone


There is good news, there is bad news but there is news for Indian Cellular service operators!
Niira Radia's arrest and the phone tapping incident opened a murky tale of lobbying and corruption in the Indian Telephone industry. The 2G and 3G licenses were auctioned and the investigation succeeding the arrests have put the loss to the exchequer at around Rs. 1,700,000,000!
This isn’t a political post so I am not going to bore you all with the murky details of the political/business nexus and its ramifications on the Indian politics in general and Government in particular. So let's leave that part as it is.
So what is the good news and the bad news purely business wise?
The good news is - The Subscriber base is increasing
The bad news is - ARPUs are decreasing.
In detail...
ARPUs are basically Average Revenue per User/month. As of Q4 2010, the Average Revenue Per User/month has dipped to a meagre Rs. 126.52. Compare this to the Rs. 315.97 of Q4 2007. The revenues have dipped 300% in 3 years. So what is the purpose? Why would you be in a business which brings down your revenues by 300% in 3 years? Why would 13 new companies scamper and lobby and use what not, tricks to get into telecom sector in India?
Let's keep the answer on hold for the time being.
The Indian cellular subscribers for the Q4 2010, stood at 543 million. In the same era, when the ARPU was 126, the subscriber base was 288 million. (source: http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2009-04-13/news/27663782_1_mtnl-s-gsm-lakh-subscribers-subscriber-base) That's almost 100% increase in the subscriber base and mind you, we are talking about not one, not two, but in hundreds of millions!
Peter Drucker says “The purpose of a business is to create customers. Of customers are there, your product is viable and if your product is viable, the sustainability is there.”
So, the Indian Mobile penetration as of date stands at, 70% right now and is expected to reach 97% in 3 years time. We are talking about roughly 300 million more users to be added in 3 years.
I have taken 3 years as a benchmark to move from one era to the another because that's exactly the age, the cellular business is taking for reaching the NEXT level.
What are we looking at? We are looking at two business models emerging now. First for the urban consumers and the second for the rural consumers.
Urban consumers, who have matured in telecom language, are looking for more out of their phones. They are looking at phones as solutions and not just a voice communication tool. Smartphone sales are galloping in the urban localities. They are generating the need for mobile web, office solutions, applications, social media. A combination of many factors. The monthly bills are soaring up. ARPUs from the urban cities are again clawing their way up. It's touching 300 right now and with 3G coming, it's bound to go up.
Rural markets are getting used to the text based services. Mobile Agri and Mobile Money. Text based services are trying to push the revenues up from the rural penetration which is having an ARPU of Rs. 98 barely.
You will also see lot of consolidation. Many of the recent 2G entrants entered just to en-cash on their investments with no intentions whatsoever of pursuing this business. Take a look at some.
Telecom in no way will become their core business. These are just investments to be sold to foreign JV partners at a higher valuation. Much much higher valuation. Then in 3 years time, you will majorly see, 5-6 active players playing the game.
And THAT’S the time, the ARPUs will go up! I expect the APRUs to settle between 350-450 nationally in about 5-7 years time. Pushed by increased call rates, data, value added services and most importantly texts! ( Tomi Ahonen will do his SMS dance but yes, the Indian Market is moving that way :) )
That means, revenues of close to Rs. 400 billion. Probably this coupled with the lucrative exits for the recent entrants make this a lucrative market overall.
That answers the question asked before!
Thanks for dropping by! :)
------- Ashutosh Tiwary
Ashutosh sometimes writes for http://ashutoshtiwary.com He lives in Pune, India and is very interested in gadgets, social media, driving, and listening to old classic rock songs. Europe being his favorite. Find his great chats on Twitter @aktiwary
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This week twitter announced new Follow button to add to your Website. Here are Six simple steps to add it to wordpress .. 1) Log in to the Twitter account that you want to put onto your blog. 2) Go to this link - https://twitter.com/about/resources/followbutton As you see your details are already in there, if this is okay you don’t need to change it. 3) Copy the Code on the right 4) Log in to Wordpress 5) Go to your Widgets – click a "Text "widget and drag it to the top of your Sidebar Widget Area on the left. 6) Its open ready for you to paste in the code – right click and click paste – leave the rest. Click SAVE and close Finished.... Short and sweet!
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Originally: http://michellewaffle.blogspot.com By Michelle D Harris
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As a breakaway from the traditional posts (something I seem to do a lot) I'm going to focus on the seven deadly sins but in a technology sense. Anyone who is a gadget fan will be a complete and total sinner as far as this is concerned, but it might also provide an interesting look at how we use, abuse and upgrade our technology.
All of these are posted in a relatively logical order, but take some time to think about it because for this we're going to use T3's Gadget of the year, the iPad for this example.
Pride
Who of us hasn't brought a shiny new gadget and can't resist showing it off to our friends?
"Look! It's still got that new gadget smell!" we shout as we proudly shove our new gadget in front of our friends, showing it off in all it's glory above their cripplingly slow netbook or five year old laptop. But do we really need it?
"It can do all these wonderful things!" We exclaim as we try to justify our expensive purchase while in the back of our minds realising slowly that well, we could just lug our laptops around and have the same experience until we hit on that killer feature.
"It's got multitouch!" We shout proudly, whilst at the same time realising that there are very few applications where we actually use it, yet suddenly realising that for a mere £20 we could get a multitouch trackpad to do much of the same
Envy
On the other hand, we could have just brought our shiny new iPad, happy as hell as we jump around thrusting it into everyones face until we suddenly thrust it into the pristine palms of someone who casually pulls out their brand new 13.3 inch MacBook Air.
Suddenly our attention is focused on the wafer thin piece of technology as we suddenly realise what a mistake we've made. For just a few hundred pounds more we could have brought THIS! So what if it only has a 64GB SSD, it's got a full OS, multitouch and a bigger screen, with proper web browsing, flash and the ability to load almost any application we can think of, oh and it's got a full sized keyboard and suddenly the world has wronged us as we realise that even with all of that it has better battery life. Suddenly our older more expensive and just as capable laptop isn't looking so bad!
Anger
Of course with all of these realisations, our friend proudly exclaims "Look I can play flash games, run Microsoft Word, have proper photo editing and I don't have to sync it with iTunes every day"
We stand back, shocked and appalled, angry that someone would dare say anything bad about our shiny new piece of technology. Of course the argument ensues
"My MacBook can run flash!"
"But my iPad doesen't NEED flash, flash is dead"
and so it goes on, even though secretly in the back of our minds we come to the slow realisation that we really want this beautiful piece of technology.
Lust
Of course after this, we start lusting over the other persons new piece of technology, we slowly fall in love with it, desperately trying to justify the expense. We secretly hate our new iPad, and look longingly at the old MacBook, exclaiming loudly "but it's old" even though it's perfectly capable, perfectly powerful. In fact it's probably better than the shiny new MacBook air, but still we start to lust after it.
Every time we see the new MacBook Air on the web, we start to wonder about selling the iPad.
Greed
We wan't it all. Suddenly despite the fact we just spend £700 on an iPad, we want the £999 MacBook Air as well, we want both, we want the newest and greatest all of the time even though we can't afford it. Sure what we have is more than good enough, but "THIS ONE'S BETTER!" using any excuse to squirrel away some money to try and save up for it. We have to have it, because we wan't the newest and best, and because we somehow think it might make us better than the other guy. We somehow justify a need where none exists.
Gluttony
All the while we lust after the new product, but then we look around and see our iPad, our year old MacBook pro and our iPhone 4. It doesn't take long to realise we have it all, we've indulged in everything we can and cannot afford. Somehow it doesn't seem so bad, but there are gadgets sitting there that do all the same things yet we don't use them.
We're all swimming in technology, but we're not using it, we can't afford to go on but still we must, with the top of our wardrobes covered with bags and boxes from the things we brought, slowly getting left behind and neglected.
Sloth
Of course, with all of these gadgets around, we get lazy. The MacBook gets disgustingly dirty, covered in filth as we let it, to try and justify buying a new one. The iPad that we brought and loved only a month or so ago, lies there, hardly being used, hardly being wanted. We can't be bothered to maintain them, all the while we're slowly giving up hope of affording the new product, and leaving our other tools and gadgets in neglect. We've become lazy, repentant and remorseful. Our gadgets lie in the dust, un-used and unloved as our emotions drop and drain.
The moral of all of this of course, is we are, sadly, shallow people. We always want the newest product out there even though what we have already is perfectly good enough. Of course, it's not very good for our finances.
So, as it comes up to christmas, the month where everyones finances are drained, do your wallet and your gadgets a favour, think twice about whether you really need something, or whether you can be content with what you have.
Don't forget, your gadgets have feelings too!
This post was originally posted on thelongmile.net by M Crowle-Groves
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It’s been a while since I did a technology related post, and in fact this one is going to fall into the category of complete geekery, it’s also going to fill certain aspects of philosophy and ethics. If your not interested in any of these things, then it’s time to find something else to do. Try Nedroid.com for some random comics of a less serious nature, for those of you who have had their curiosity glands pipe up in the last few lines, read on, but beware, this is going to be a long read. There is one, seemingly simple question that has always brought up masses of curiosity in me, one that I have never found the answer to. It is in fact the most complex of all questions surrounding AI in the world. It’s not whether it would be ethically right to command something that is intelligent or conscious to be a slave, and nor is it a question of how we should limit information or derestrict information sources to an AI. It’s far more complex, and far more simple than that. Does an AI have a soul? This question is one that divides many, confuses others, disgusts some and evokes strong emotional opinions in almost every single person who has ever been faced with the question. Let’s start at the basics shall we? A computer, to a certain extent, is a unique individual. It has it’s own characteristics thanks to imperfections in manufacturing processes, and whilst manufacturers will have you think otherwise, no two computers are exactly alike. Memory is slightly slower or faster due to tolerances, hard drives performance waivers to within microns of every other hard drive in the world, even something as simple as your computers cooling, two CPU coolers sit on the processors of two different computers, and whilst they are manufacturers to be the same, the tolerances, and performance reveal minute, almost undetectable instances, so one computer might read 37º and the other might read 37.4º. These minute differences are almost never detectable by the end user, they are so minuscule that in basic terms, the computers are exactly the same, but in more advanced terms, each and every one of them is just a tiny bit different. So in actual fact, even without AI, your computer is already a unique individual. In very basic terms, your computer is also alive, it breathes air, excretes hot gasses and technically excretes electricity, since it’s not 100% efficient. It consumes electricity and protects itself from danger. Granted the last one is due to a network of sensors and interlocks, but it does technically protect. About the only two requirements of life that it doesn’t fulfil, is that it doesn’t reproduce or have the ability to consciously think. Of course with AI, it may not be able to reproduce, but a true AI will mean it can consciously think, so in technical terms if it wanted to reproduce it could command software to build another AI program, or even control a robotic production line to build another. It would in essential steps, be alive in basic terms. Ok, so being alive is still up for debate, although one theory is a random collection of parts with a simple ‘go’ command could cause a computer to write it’s own code, essentially in the same way a foetus, gets a sudden electrical charge to start beating, that same electrical charge jumpstarts the brain. The jury is out, and probably always will be, but it’s interesting to know. Of course that brings us to the next part, is an AI actually conscious? If computer code essentially writes itself it could be considered aware, since it would need to adapt it’s code to the environment around it. It would need to be able to react to a given situation and be aware of it. Some might argue that the sensors sending signals back, mean it’s simply processing what it reads, but then if you think about it, humans have sensors called nerves. These nerves simply respond to a given situation and send a signal back to the brain for it to interpret. Biology and Psychology teaches us that certain responses are ingrained in our very makeup, but the human minds ability to respond to a different situation has often been described as a computer program, one that can be changed. The gag reflex can be changed and taught to work in a different way, pain can sometimes become pleasure, and in the case of illness, our responses can be mixed up and turned around. A condition called Synesthesia, means that in some cases a person can ‘hear’ or even ‘smell’ colour. Dissociative identity disorder means that a number of different personalities, each with their own individual reactions to something, are displayed through a persons individuality. This last one isn’t unlike a computer program either, a program can respond to one input, and another program can respond to the same input in a different way. So, if the code writes itself and we haven’t given it a set of parameters to tell it how to respond the computer is essentially aware of what is going on, of course it may react differently, but a true AI may feel fear because of consequence, e.g. it does something bad and it has one of it’s sensors triggered, or even the power taken out. Essentially the computer could be considered to be aware, and of course because of past experience it could learn to react in a different way. This fulfils the requirements of subjective experience, awareness and it even fulfils the requirement of ‘executive control system of the mind’ since it would have the choice to perform an action, knowing that there could be a consequence. It could also be described as being capable of ‘feeling’ since sensors would be added to allow it to react to a certain event, since the code could in theory write itself, it could program itself to feel fear, even malice as well as consequence. Remember where we said about consequence? It does something bad and gets the power turned off? It could also feel fear, even become repressed and unwilling to act. So what about wakefulness? How do we define that in terms of a computer. It’s on, so it’s aware of it’s surroundings, it’s awake, but a computer never really sleeps, it could however choose to shutdown sensors so that it enters a resting or idle state to allow for a processor to cool, this one is a tricky one, and may even become an exception. Of course the other school of thought is that we would program the AI with an initial set of commands, parameters that tell it what is right, wrong, good, bad, happiness and sadness. The consensus however is that eventually the system would add to it’s own program, even replace the code that is already there. A true AI is widely believed to be one that can exist without input from other users or assistance. Of course we are at the stage now where we have effectively defined that a computer is technically alive, and could technically be conscious. Now comes the burning question, the one that this entry is all about. Can a computer have a soul? This perhaps is one of the hardest questions to answer. We’ve shown that a computer with an AI could potentially be it’s own entity, with AI you could be creating a race. But since it is something we built, and in theory, could terminate, is it a soul? There’s no real medical definition of a soul, there isn’t really a spiritual definition. Do we even know what a soul actually is? Rather than try and answer the question, I will leave you to ponder your own possible answers, but let’s remember a few things. A Child, is technically something we create, in theory as with any human, we could terminate it. Although it would not be ethically correct, it’s the same as a computer, we could create it, and terminate it. A human will inevitably die, and so a computer will through component failure. Even the oldest computers can suffer electrical degradation, albeit over a much longer period. Humans can be injured, so can a computer. An electrical component could be subjected to an electrical shock, it could still run, although at a reduced capacity. However, a human in most cases can heal, this is the big thing with a computer. It cannot repair itself unless it has access to a robotic arm and the ability to command them to identify and replace a component. It would however have the ability to run a diagnostic, and work out that something isn’t right, the same way a human could be injured and just know that something isn’t right with themselves. One thing that is difficult, is identity. A child can usually identify itself or at least what it is within a few months. A child, can usually identify that it is male or female thanks to it’s organs. A computer on the other hand may not be able to do this. Can a computer identify if it is male or female? Could it even choose to be male or female? The question isn’t so much whether an AI could be alive, but more if it has a soul. In some peoples opinions a soul is defined by so many things, including gender, a soul however to some could be nothing more than a personality which an AI would undoubtedly develop. Would an AI have a soul? You decide. This post was originally posted on thelongmile.net - Click here to see the original
Farthing 1982 defines consciousness as “…. subjective experience, awareness, the ability to experience “feeling”, wakefulness, or the executive control system of the mind”
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First appeared on Michelle Harris' blog http://michellewaffle.blogspot.com/2010/09/nokia-n900-and-sketch-application-by.html
@michelledh
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After the success of my blog who to follow on twitter, I have decided to write a "How to get followed on Twitter". Now, don't get me wrong I know I don't have tens of thousands of followers but I do have a couple of thousand now and they are really fantastic ones. If you want to use tricks and scams to get thousands of mainly spam followers then these tips won't be for you, but if you just want to make sure you are getting the best out of Twitter then read on.
So, lets get to it.....
(I'm going to do it in list form as @davepeck always says, people like lists)
1 - Choose a good avatar - I've said this before and I'll say it again, an actual photo of yourself is best, people like to see who they are tweeting with, unless you are tweeting for a business then the logo will be appropriate sometimes.
2 - Write an interesting bio - write what you are interested in, you are then more likely to get followers with same interests as yourself and of course people then know you are real. Or just write a witty comment, this also works for me, it makes me want to find out more.
3 - Add a URL of your website, personal blog, LinkedIn, MySpace - anything that people can see you have an online presence and they can learn a bit more about you.
4 - Publish your Twitter profile on your blogs, websites anywhere you can so that those followers have the choice of following you also on Twitter.
5 - Tweet - you need to tweet, tweet things that interest you and followers will come. Try not to be too boring although we all do it. *Guilty* I can't really advise you on what to tweet or how often to tweet as different people like different things but you will work it out eventually.
6 - Retweet - retweet interesting content that you have read, whether it be exciting blogs, website entries, articles "its called sharing" and if you share other users tweets then hopefully they will share yours, doesn't always work that way but it doesn't matter, you are still sharing. Also people searching for followers will see what you are in to. (I would advise reading the link before you just retweet it and sometimes you might just need to do a little research to make sure its real, its embarrassing RTing something that's then found out to be fake.)
Example; when you see a tweet that a celebrity has died, don't just retweet it - Google it! Or find out where the tweet originated from.
7 - Engage in conversations, that's what twitter is all about, don't be frightened to just jump in and chat with people, that is what they want, its why we are there. If what they are tweeting was private they would be talking in DM or another medium.
8 - Reply - reply to your @'s this to me is just good manners, if someone has taken the time to tweet to you then its only fair and decent that you should reply - also to people that RT your tweets, its polite to say thank you. Okay, sometimes we all miss tweets or we are not around but most of the time, there is not excuse not to just acknowledge an @ even with just a ;)
9 - Follow people back that interest you - this is maybe a choice thing, some people don't want to follow lots of users back, they say it hard to keep up with the timeline if you have over a certain number, and they like to keep to a small, personal group. I am not saying you need to follow EVERYONE back, check them out first you are under no obligation. However, I do think its polite especially if you have had conversations with a person that is following you. They are good enough to tweet with then they should be good enough to follow. When you are both following each other it seems more intimate, more of a friendship, and if there are groups of you all following each other, that is when the fun starts! Also following someone makes them feel valued. There is always a good chance that if you haven't followed back that you will lose that follower anyway.
Most of these are just common sense and it just comes natural to most of us, that's why we are on Twitter to engage, converse, to meet new interesting people, to share and to learn, well its why I am on Twitter. Basically just be yourself and eventually you will get followers. Obtaining great followers doesn't happen over night.
If you have any tips that you feel that I have missed out, please comment and I will add them to the list.
I hope that you have found this useful.
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